Since League of Legends has been around for more than 6 years and betting has been available for quite a while, betting operators are able to set accurate betting odds for LoL matches and competitions, especially when it comes to the most popular tournaments like the Championship Series and the World Championship.
Certain teams have already established a reputation and built a name for themselves and there’s enough statistical data that will allow operators to set fairly accurate algorithms that calculate the odds. However, surprises are always possible, in fact that’s the beauty of betting, the underdogs do win, and eSports are no different than conventional sport. When it comes to employing a betting strategy, again, there are many similarities, but also differences between eSports and LoL in particular and conventional sports.
Bankroll and Bet Size
The first thing that every bettor should determine in order to become more organised and increase their winning chances is to set a bankroll and determine how much money, or what percentage of the bankroll will be wagered per bet. Bear in mind that the amount of the percentage doesn’t have to be the same. If you’re betting a onetime only outright bet on a tournament that takes place in the course of one month you don’t have to bet the same amount as you would on a single bet at low odds on match that take place later on the day.
Smaller Tournaments Offer More Value Bets
League of Legends is popular enough and there are a lot of tournaments that are featured in the betting offer of many sportsbooks, which means that you can also bet on matches that are part of tournaments of lower quality, even semi-professional tournaments. Some would say, that the best value odds will be found here and not on the leading tournaments that attract large audiences.
There are few reasons why that is the case. Firstly, operators don’t know that much about the teams that participate in lower tier tournaments. There just isn’t enough available statistical data and they can’t formulate the odds with that precision as they do for top tournaments.
Winners of smaller tournaments don’t win millions or even hundreds of thousands and don’t attract millions of viewers. As a result of that fewer bets are wagered on those matches, which means that the sportsbooks don’t risk losing a lot of money even if things don’t go as expected. That is why they can afford not to be bothered about the odds and don’t change them as fast when something changes.
For example, you may find out before the betting operator that a key player of one of the teams will not be participating in the match. As a result of that the likelihood of that team winning will be lower and you will have time to place a bet at better odds before the operator changes them in order to affect the new situation.
If you are an avid follower and watch a lot of smaller tournaments you might be able to recognise smaller and less popular teams which are up and coming and have a chance of becoming household names in the future. The odds, both for outrights and match betting, on teams with unproven records are often quite high and there’s one area when you can definitely get the upper hand and beat the sportsbooks.
Tips for Casual Bettors
If you’re more of a casual bettor and treat betting more like a lottery than a game of skills, then you should focus on bets like total number of maps, or odd or even number of kills. There’s no need to overanalyse this sort of bets, just follow your gut feeling and bet. But be careful not to wager too much money on such bets, as they are not based on statistical analysis or have anything to do with understanding the game.
Parlay or accumulator bets are perfect for casual bettors, as you have an opportunity to win a lot of money with a small stake. Of course, the chances of winning are reduced with every added selection, especially if those selections at higher odds, but if you’re a casual bettor you can afford to bet small amounts of money, knowing that you might not win for a longer period of time. The important thing is that if you do win, it’ll be big.
Beware of Progressive Strategies
Many are familiar with the so called progressive betting strategies. There are multiple variations, but the main principle is always the same. The bettor is supposed to always bet at the same, or roughly the same odds, or always bet the same market and the same selection, and increase the bet amount after every loss.
The reasoning is the following- by increasing the wager appropriately the bettor will be sure that regardless how many times in a row they’ve lost, an eventual win will bring all the lost money back and an extra profit. When you put it like this, the strategy sounds flawless. But, there is always a ‘but’. Theoretically you can lose that many times in a row so that you won’t be able to place the next wager, because you won’t be able to afford it. And that isn’t just a theoretical possibility, it can happen.
Progressive betting strategies sound like they are risk free and profit is guaranteed, but actually you’re making a big risk and the expected profits aren’t that high. Some people decide to take the risk and bet progressively. However, it is essential that you understand how it works and know exactly how many bets you can afford without going bankrupt and then decide whether you’re willing to take the risk.
There isn’t one betting strategy that is guaranteed to be successful, otherwise, everyone would’ve have employed it. You should focus instead on developing a plan that will allow you to bet long term, without losing too much money, i.e. where you only lose as much as you can afford without feeling pressure, and if you understand League of Legends well and have a bit of luck, you may end up with a positive betting bankroll at the end of the year.